Intelligence Briefs
Forecasts we published before the event and what happened after.
We said ignore the ceasefire.
We called the Hormuz ceasefire three weeks early and said it would be operationally meaningless. Cape contracts held. Seven forecasts verified after 25 days.
Read the verification →
The Hormuz Brief
We modeled what a Hormuz closure triggers: carrier halts, Cape reroutes, port overloads, and a freight spike that hits every continent.
Read the brief →New briefs land as disruptions form. Subscribe to get the next one first →
Regional image: NASA / ISS, 24 March 2021. Historical context, not imagery of the 2026 disruption.